NOVANTALAB

Who's over- and under-performing

The Luck Index is a team's actual league points minus the points their expected goals suggest they should have. Positive = over-performing their underlying numbers (and due to regress). Negative = playing better than their results show.

Top divisions onlyAll leagues

Riding their luck

TeamLeaguePtsxPtsLuck
BarcelonaLa Liga9473.5+20.5
PortoPrimeira Liga8868.0+20.0
AEKSuper League7252.9+19.1
DortmundBundesliga7354.5+18.5
ArsenalPremier League8566.9+18.1
PSV EindhovenEredivisie8465.9+18.1
GalatasaraySüper Lig7759.6+17.4
BenficaPrimeira Liga8062.8+17.2
LensLigue 17053.0+17.0
InterSerie A8770.5+16.5
FenerbahceSüper Lig7457.7+16.3
St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League8669.9+16.1
Aston VillaPremier League6548.9+16.1
St TruidenJupiler Pro League7155.0+16.0
Club BruggeJupiler Pro League8872.3+15.7

Better than their results

TeamLeaguePtsxPtsLuck
VeronaSerie A2146.9-25.9
WolvesPremier League2045.2-25.2
DenderJupiler Pro League2246.0-24.0
PisaSerie A1840.0-22.0
LivingstonScottish Premiership2142.9-21.9
WolfsburgBundesliga2944.7-15.7
BurnleyPremier League2237.3-15.3
LarisaSuper League3045.1-15.1
MetzLigue 11731.4-14.4
NantesLigue 12437.3-13.3
CremoneseSerie A3447.2-13.2
St MirrenScottish Premiership3446.8-12.8
FC KolnBundesliga3244.4-12.4
EstrelaPrimeira Liga3042.3-12.3
AVSPrimeira Liga2133.3-12.3