Who's over- and under-performing
The Luck Index is a team's actual league points minus the points their expected goals suggest they should have. Positive = over-performing their underlying numbers (and due to regress). Negative = playing better than their results show.
Riding their luck
| Team | League | Pts | xPts | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | La Liga | 94 | 73.5 | +20.5 |
| Porto | Primeira Liga | 88 | 68.0 | +20.0 |
| AEK | Super League | 72 | 53.1 | +18.9 |
| Dortmund | Bundesliga | 73 | 54.5 | +18.5 |
| PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | 84 | 65.5 | +18.5 |
| Arsenal | Premier League | 85 | 66.9 | +18.1 |
| Benfica | Primeira Liga | 80 | 62.7 | +17.3 |
| Galatasaray | Süper Lig | 77 | 59.8 | +17.2 |
| Lens | Ligue 1 | 70 | 53.0 | +17.0 |
| Inter | Serie A | 87 | 70.7 | +16.3 |
| Fenerbahce | Süper Lig | 74 | 57.8 | +16.2 |
| St Truiden | Jupiler Pro League | 71 | 54.9 | +16.1 |
| Aston Villa | Premier League | 65 | 48.9 | +16.1 |
| St. Gilloise | Jupiler Pro League | 86 | 70.1 | +15.9 |
| Club Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | 88 | 72.7 | +15.3 |
Better than their results
| Team | League | Pts | xPts | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verona | Serie A | 21 | 46.8 | -25.8 |
| Wolves | Premier League | 20 | 45.3 | -25.3 |
| Dender | Jupiler Pro League | 22 | 45.9 | -23.9 |
| Pisa | Serie A | 18 | 40.1 | -22.1 |
| Livingston | Scottish Premiership | 21 | 42.9 | -21.9 |
| Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | 29 | 44.7 | -15.7 |
| Burnley | Premier League | 22 | 37.4 | -15.4 |
| Larisa | Super League | 30 | 45.0 | -15.0 |
| Metz | Ligue 1 | 17 | 31.4 | -14.4 |
| Nantes | Ligue 1 | 24 | 37.3 | -13.3 |
| Cremonese | Serie A | 34 | 47.2 | -13.2 |
| St Mirren | Scottish Premiership | 34 | 46.9 | -12.9 |
| FC Koln | Bundesliga | 32 | 44.5 | -12.5 |
| Kifisia | Super League | 41 | 53.3 | -12.3 |
| Estrela | Primeira Liga | 30 | 42.3 | -12.3 |
Riding their luck
| Team | League | Pts | xPts | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln | League One | 103 | 75.0 | +28.0 |
| Bromley | League Two | 87 | 60.9 | +26.1 |
| Frosinone | Serie B | 81 | 55.5 | +25.5 |
| Barcelona | La Liga | 94 | 73.5 | +20.5 |
| Coventry | Championship | 95 | 74.9 | +20.1 |
| Porto | Primeira Liga | 88 | 68.0 | +20.0 |
| AEK | Super League | 72 | 53.1 | +18.9 |
| Dortmund | Bundesliga | 73 | 54.5 | +18.5 |
| PSV Eindhoven | Eredivisie | 84 | 65.5 | +18.5 |
| Palermo | Serie B | 72 | 53.7 | +18.3 |
| Arsenal | Premier League | 85 | 66.9 | +18.1 |
| Benfica | Primeira Liga | 80 | 62.7 | +17.3 |
| Galatasaray | Süper Lig | 77 | 59.8 | +17.2 |
| Millwall | Championship | 83 | 66.0 | +17.0 |
| Lens | Ligue 1 | 70 | 53.0 | +17.0 |
Better than their results
| Team | League | Pts | xPts | Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verona | Serie A | 21 | 46.8 | -25.8 |
| Wolves | Premier League | 20 | 45.3 | -25.3 |
| Dender | Jupiler Pro League | 22 | 45.9 | -23.9 |
| Crawley Town | League Two | 40 | 62.6 | -22.6 |
| Pisa | Serie A | 18 | 40.1 | -22.1 |
| Livingston | Scottish Premiership | 21 | 42.9 | -21.9 |
| Sheffield Weds | Championship | 18 | 39.8 | -21.8 |
| Cultural Leonesa | La Liga 2 | 37 | 57.1 | -20.1 |
| Harrogate | League Two | 39 | 58.6 | -19.6 |
| Bastia | Ligue 2 | 28 | 46.4 | -18.4 |
| Tranmere | League Two | 41 | 57.8 | -16.8 |
| Sociedad B | La Liga 2 | 47 | 63.3 | -16.3 |
| Port Vale | League One | 42 | 58.0 | -16.0 |
| Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | 29 | 44.7 | -15.7 |
| Preußen Münster | 2. Bundesliga | 30 | 45.7 | -15.7 |