Scottish League One
xG Table · 2025/26
Model figures — expected goals scored by TrueGoals, not actual match xG.
Season leaders
Top xG
- Inverness C55.1
- Queen of Sth53.2
- Alloa52.9
- Hamilton51.8
- Stenhousemuir49.3
Biggest over-performers
- Stenhousemuir+15.8
- Inverness C+9.5
- Hamilton+4.3
- Montrose+1.7
- Queen of Sth+1.0
Biggest under-performers
- Kelty Hearts-14.0
- East Fife-9.3
- Cove Rangers-8.5
- Peterhead-4.6
- Alloa-1.4
Best defences (lowest xGA)
- Inverness C32.1
- Alloa43.4
- Stenhousemuir46.7
- Peterhead47.1
- Queen of Sth48.1
Biggest xG difference
- Inverness C+23.1
- Alloa+9.5
- Queen of Sth+5.1
- Stenhousemuir+2.6
- Hamilton+1.5
| # | Team | Matches played. | Goals scored (actual). | Expected goals for: goals our model (TrueGoals) says this team's performances typically produce. | Expected goals against: same, for goals conceded. | Expected goal difference (xGF minus xGA). | Actual league points. | Expected points: points the team “should” have won based on xG, via match simulation. | Actual points minus expected points. Positive = over-performing its underlying numbers (may regress); negative = under-performing. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inverness C | 36 | 60 | 55.1 | 32.1 | +23.1 | 74 | 64.5 | +9.5 |
| 2 | Alloa | 36 | 50 | 52.9 | 43.4 | +9.5 | 53 | 54.4 | -1.4 |
| 3 | Queen of Sth | 36 | 58 | 53.2 | 48.1 | +5.1 | 54 | 53.0 | +1.0 |
| 4 | Stenhousemuir | 36 | 50 | 49.3 | 46.7 | +2.6 | 67 | 51.2 | +15.8 |
| 5 | Hamilton | 36 | 54 | 51.8 | 50.2 | +1.5 | 55 | 50.7 | +4.3 |
| 6 | Cove Rangers | 36 | 41 | 45.9 | 49.9 | -4.0 | 38 | 46.5 | -8.5 |
| 7 | Peterhead | 36 | 48 | 42.1 | 47.1 | -5.0 | 43 | 47.6 | -4.6 |
| 8 | East Fife | 36 | 34 | 46.1 | 52.8 | -6.7 | 36 | 45.3 | -9.3 |
| 9 | Kelty Hearts | 36 | 33 | 43.0 | 53.3 | -10.3 | 29 | 43.0 | -14.0 |
| 10 | Montrose | 36 | 48 | 43.5 | 59.2 | -15.8 | 42 | 40.3 | +1.7 |
| 1 | Inverness C | 18 | 38 | 30.4 | 12.9 | +17.5 | 43 | 36.2 | +6.8 |
| 2 | Alloa | 18 | 28 | 29.3 | 16.5 | +12.8 | 30 | 31.6 | -1.6 |
| 3 | Queen of Sth | 18 | 31 | 32.0 | 21.9 | +10.1 | 30 | 31.5 | -1.5 |
| 4 | Hamilton | 18 | 26 | 25.3 | 19.0 | +6.3 | 32 | 28.1 | +3.9 |
| 5 | Stenhousemuir | 18 | 31 | 29.7 | 26.3 | +3.3 | 37 | 27.3 | +9.7 |
| 6 | Peterhead | 18 | 29 | 24.8 | 21.9 | +2.9 | 25 | 27.1 | -2.1 |
| 7 | East Fife | 18 | 19 | 23.8 | 22.1 | +1.7 | 22 | 25.5 | -3.5 |
| 8 | Cove Rangers | 18 | 17 | 24.2 | 25.3 | -1.1 | 19 | 24.0 | -5.0 |
| 9 | Kelty Hearts | 18 | 11 | 23.1 | 26.7 | -3.6 | 10 | 22.2 | -12.2 |
| 10 | Montrose | 18 | 25 | 20.5 | 27.4 | -7.0 | 26 | 20.6 | +5.4 |
| 1 | Inverness C | 18 | 22 | 24.7 | 19.2 | +5.5 | 31 | 28.2 | +2.8 |
| 2 | Stenhousemuir | 18 | 19 | 19.6 | 20.4 | -0.7 | 30 | 23.9 | +6.1 |
| 3 | Cove Rangers | 18 | 24 | 21.7 | 24.6 | -2.9 | 19 | 22.5 | -3.5 |
| 4 | Alloa | 18 | 22 | 23.6 | 26.9 | -3.4 | 23 | 22.8 | +0.2 |
| 5 | Hamilton | 18 | 28 | 26.5 | 31.3 | -4.8 | 23 | 22.6 | +0.4 |
| 6 | Queen of Sth | 18 | 27 | 21.2 | 26.2 | -5.0 | 24 | 21.5 | +2.5 |
| 7 | Kelty Hearts | 18 | 22 | 20.0 | 26.6 | -6.6 | 19 | 20.8 | -1.8 |
| 8 | Peterhead | 18 | 19 | 17.3 | 25.2 | -7.9 | 18 | 20.4 | -2.4 |
| 9 | East Fife | 18 | 15 | 22.3 | 30.7 | -8.4 | 14 | 19.8 | -5.8 |
| 10 | Montrose | 18 | 23 | 23.0 | 31.8 | -8.8 | 16 | 19.8 | -3.8 |
First half / second half
Descriptive — actual half-time and full-time facts (2025/26), not predictions.
| Team | Pld | Goals scored in the first half. | Goals scored in the second half (full-time minus half-time). | Goals conceded in the first half. | Goals conceded in the second half. | Share of the team's goals scored in the second half. Shown only when there are enough goals to be meaningful. | Comebacks: matches the team was trailing at half-time but ended up winning or drawing. | Leads lost: matches the team was leading at half-time but ended up drawing or losing. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alloa | 36 | 21 | 29 | 12 | 26 | 58% | 2 | 4 |
| Cove Rangers | 36 | 18 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 56% | 6 | 3 |
| East Fife | 36 | 13 | 21 | 31 | 30 | 62% | 4 | 1 |
| Hamilton | 36 | 25 | 29 | 18 | 24 | 54% | 1 | 2 |
| Inverness C | 36 | 28 | 32 | 10 | 14 | 53% | 4 | 4 |
| Kelty Hearts | 36 | 15 | 18 | 29 | 33 | 55% | 3 | 6 |
| Montrose | 36 | 22 | 26 | 27 | 40 | 54% | 3 | 5 |
| Peterhead | 36 | 25 | 23 | 27 | 37 | 48% | 3 | 2 |
| Queen of Sth | 36 | 20 | 38 | 21 | 26 | 66% | 4 | 4 |
| Stenhousemuir | 36 | 22 | 28 | 12 | 15 | 56% | 4 | 3 |
| League total | 360 | 209 | 267 | 209 | 267 | 56% | 34 | 34 |
Home advantage
Realized home vs away results (2025/26). "Edge" = home PPG − away PPG. Descriptive, not a prediction.
League-wide home edge (PPG) over 26 seasons — the long decline:
| Team | HP | Home win percentage. | Home points per game (3 for a win, 1 for a draw). | Away points per game. | Home edge: home points per game minus away points per game — the size of the team's home advantage. Caveated when either home or away matches are few. | Home goal difference per game. | Away goal difference per game. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alloa | 18 | 44% | 1.67 | 1.28 | +0.39 | +0.61 | +0.06 |
| Cove Rangers | 18 | 22% | 1.06 | 1.06 | 0.00 | -0.17 | 0.00 |
| East Fife | 18 | 33% | 1.22 | 0.78 | +0.44 | -0.44 | -1.06 |
| Hamilton | 18 | 56% | 1.78 | 1.28 | +0.50 | +0.61 | +0.06 |
| Inverness C | 18 | 72% | 2.39 | 1.72 | +0.67 | +1.44 | +0.56 |
| Kelty Hearts | 18 | 6% | 0.56 | 1.06 | -0.50 | -1.22 | -0.39 |
| Montrose | 18 | 44% | 1.44 | 0.89 | +0.56 | -0.50 | -0.56 |
| Peterhead | 18 | 39% | 1.39 | 1.00 | +0.39 | 0.00 | -0.89 |
| Queen of Sth | 18 | 44% | 1.67 | 1.33 | +0.33 | +0.50 | +0.11 |
| Stenhousemuir | 18 | 56% | 2.06 | 1.67 | +0.39 | +1.06 | +0.22 |
| League total | 180 | 42% | 1.52 | 1.21 | +0.32 | +0.19 | -0.19 |
Corners
Descriptive — actual corner counts (2025/26), shown where available. Not a prediction.
League-wide corners per team, per match over 11 seasons — the decline:
| Team | Pld | Corners won (total). | Corners conceded (total). | Corners won per game. | Corners conceded per game. | Home corners won per game. | Away corners won per game. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alloa | 36 | 157 | 180 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.2 |
| Cove Rangers | 36 | 175 | 162 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 4.7 |
| East Fife | 36 | 163 | 184 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 4.2 |
| Hamilton | 36 | 169 | 180 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.4 |
| Inverness C | 36 | 239 | 88 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 7.7 | 5.6 |
| Kelty Hearts | 36 | 138 | 199 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 4.0 |
| Montrose | 36 | 144 | 167 | 4.0 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 3.7 |
| Peterhead | 36 | 179 | 162 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 4.7 |
| Queen of Sth | 36 | 135 | 185 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 |
| Stenhousemuir | 36 | 159 | 151 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.6 |
| League total | 360 | 1658 | 1658 | 4.6 | 4.6 | — | — |