Primeira Liga
xG Table · 2025/26
Model figures — expected goals scored by TrueGoals, not actual match xG.
Season leaders
Biggest over-performers
- Porto+20.0
- Benfica+17.2
- Sp Lisbon+14.9
- Famalicao+9.5
- Gil Vicente+2.1
Best defences (lowest xGA)
- Porto21.2
- Sp Lisbon26.9
- Benfica28.9
- Sp Braga32.8
- Santa Clara37.2
Biggest xG difference
- Sp Lisbon+38.2
- Porto+32.3
- Benfica+25.5
- Sp Braga+17.3
- Gil Vicente+3.3
| # | Team | Matches played. | Goals scored (actual). | Expected goals for: goals our model (TrueGoals) says this team's performances typically produce. | Expected goals against: same, for goals conceded. | Expected goal difference (xGF minus xGA). | Actual league points. | Expected points: points the team “should” have won based on xG, via match simulation. | Actual points minus expected points. Positive = over-performing its underlying numbers (may regress); negative = under-performing. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sp Lisbon | 34 | 89 | 65.1 | 26.9 | +38.2 | 82 | 67.1 | +14.9 |
| 2 | Porto | 34 | 66 | 53.5 | 21.2 | +32.3 | 88 | 68.0 | +20.0 |
| 3 | Benfica | 34 | 74 | 54.4 | 28.9 | +25.5 | 80 | 62.8 | +17.2 |
| 4 | Sp Braga | 34 | 64 | 50.1 | 32.8 | +17.3 | 59 | 57.0 | +2.0 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 47 | 45.1 | 41.8 | +3.3 | 50 | 47.9 | +2.1 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 34 | 42 | 43.3 | 43.9 | -0.7 | 56 | 46.5 | +9.5 |
| 7 | Santa Clara | 34 | 32 | 34.2 | 37.2 | -3.0 | 36 | 44.0 | -8.0 |
| 8 | Rio Ave | 34 | 35 | 42.5 | 46.9 | -4.4 | 36 | 43.1 | -7.1 |
| 9 | Estrela | 34 | 38 | 39.7 | 45.6 | -5.9 | 30 | 42.3 | -12.3 |
| 10 | Arouca | 34 | 47 | 40.8 | 47.6 | -6.8 | 42 | 43.1 | -1.1 |
| 11 | Nacional | 34 | 37 | 45.2 | 52.2 | -7.0 | 34 | 42.9 | -8.9 |
| 12 | Guimaraes | 34 | 39 | 42.3 | 50.5 | -8.2 | 42 | 42.3 | -0.3 |
| 13 | Alverca | 34 | 35 | 38.3 | 47.3 | -9.0 | 39 | 41.3 | -2.3 |
| 14 | Moreirense | 34 | 37 | 37.7 | 46.9 | -9.2 | 43 | 42.2 | +0.8 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 34 | 31 | 32.7 | 44.8 | -12.1 | 30 | 39.4 | -9.4 |
| 16 | Estoril | 34 | 54 | 43.1 | 56.3 | -13.2 | 39 | 39.9 | -0.9 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | 27 | 36.9 | 52.6 | -15.7 | 28 | 38.0 | -10.0 |
| 18 | AVS | 34 | 27 | 32.7 | 54.1 | -21.4 | 21 | 33.3 | -12.3 |
| 1 | Sp Lisbon | 17 | 51 | 37.6 | 12.0 | +25.7 | 41 | 37.2 | +3.8 |
| 2 | Benfica | 17 | 41 | 32.4 | 13.4 | +19.0 | 39 | 35.4 | +3.6 |
| 3 | Porto | 17 | 33 | 28.0 | 9.4 | +18.7 | 45 | 35.1 | +9.9 |
| 4 | Sp Braga | 17 | 34 | 24.4 | 14.6 | +9.7 | 30 | 29.1 | +0.9 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 28 | 26.4 | 16.9 | +9.5 | 30 | 28.9 | +1.1 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 17 | 27 | 25.7 | 18.7 | +7.0 | 31 | 27.3 | +3.7 |
| 7 | Arouca | 17 | 27 | 24.6 | 20.4 | +4.2 | 25 | 26.2 | -1.2 |
| 8 | Santa Clara | 17 | 17 | 18.1 | 15.2 | +2.9 | 23 | 25.1 | -2.1 |
| 9 | Guimaraes | 17 | 26 | 23.1 | 20.9 | +2.2 | 28 | 24.7 | +3.3 |
| 10 | Estrela | 17 | 21 | 21.7 | 19.7 | +2.1 | 18 | 24.3 | -6.3 |
| 11 | Rio Ave | 17 | 17 | 22.5 | 22.7 | -0.2 | 15 | 22.3 | -7.3 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 17 | 20 | 18.8 | 19.3 | -0.4 | 27 | 23.1 | +3.9 |
| 13 | Nacional | 17 | 23 | 23.3 | 24.3 | -1.1 | 20 | 22.9 | -2.9 |
| 14 | Alverca | 17 | 18 | 19.9 | 21.7 | -1.8 | 26 | 22.5 | +3.5 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 17 | 18 | 17.2 | 20.5 | -3.2 | 15 | 21.5 | -6.5 |
| 16 | Tondela | 17 | 13 | 19.9 | 23.6 | -3.7 | 13 | 22.0 | -9.0 |
| 17 | AVS | 17 | 15 | 21.0 | 24.9 | -3.9 | 12 | 21.0 | -9.0 |
| 18 | Estoril | 17 | 29 | 24.8 | 29.5 | -4.8 | 23 | 20.5 | +2.5 |
| 1 | Porto | 17 | 33 | 25.4 | 11.8 | +13.6 | 43 | 32.9 | +10.1 |
| 2 | Sp Lisbon | 17 | 38 | 27.4 | 14.9 | +12.6 | 41 | 29.9 | +11.1 |
| 3 | Sp Braga | 17 | 30 | 25.7 | 18.1 | +7.6 | 29 | 27.9 | +1.1 |
| 4 | Benfica | 17 | 33 | 22.0 | 15.5 | +6.5 | 41 | 27.3 | +13.7 |
| 5 | Rio Ave | 17 | 18 | 20.0 | 24.2 | -4.2 | 21 | 20.8 | +0.2 |
| 6 | Santa Clara | 17 | 15 | 16.1 | 22.0 | -5.9 | 13 | 18.9 | -5.9 |
| 7 | Nacional | 17 | 14 | 21.9 | 27.9 | -6.0 | 14 | 20.0 | -6.0 |
| 8 | Gil Vicente | 17 | 19 | 18.8 | 24.9 | -6.2 | 20 | 19.0 | +1.0 |
| 9 | Alverca | 17 | 17 | 18.3 | 25.5 | -7.2 | 13 | 18.8 | -5.8 |
| 10 | Famalicao | 17 | 15 | 17.5 | 25.2 | -7.7 | 25 | 19.2 | +5.8 |
| 11 | Estrela | 17 | 17 | 18.0 | 26.0 | -8.0 | 12 | 18.0 | -6.0 |
| 12 | Estoril | 17 | 25 | 18.3 | 26.8 | -8.5 | 16 | 19.4 | -3.4 |
| 13 | Moreirense | 17 | 17 | 18.9 | 27.7 | -8.8 | 16 | 19.1 | -3.1 |
| 14 | Casa Pia | 17 | 13 | 15.5 | 24.3 | -8.8 | 15 | 17.9 | -2.9 |
| 15 | Guimaraes | 17 | 13 | 19.2 | 29.6 | -10.4 | 14 | 17.6 | -3.6 |
| 16 | Arouca | 17 | 20 | 16.1 | 27.1 | -11.0 | 17 | 16.9 | +0.1 |
| 17 | Tondela | 17 | 14 | 17.0 | 29.0 | -12.0 | 15 | 16.0 | -1.0 |
| 18 | AVS | 17 | 12 | 11.6 | 29.2 | -17.5 | 9 | 12.3 | -3.3 |
First half / second half
Descriptive — actual half-time and full-time facts (2025/26), not predictions.
| Team | Pld | Goals scored in the first half. | Goals scored in the second half (full-time minus half-time). | Goals conceded in the first half. | Goals conceded in the second half. | Share of the team's goals scored in the second half. Shown only when there are enough goals to be meaningful. | Comebacks: matches the team was trailing at half-time but ended up winning or drawing. | Leads lost: matches the team was leading at half-time but ended up drawing or losing. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVS | 34 | 10 | 17 | 32 | 35 | 63% | 2 | 2 |
| Alverca | 34 | 14 | 21 | 24 | 28 | 60% | 3 | 4 |
| Arouca | 34 | 18 | 29 | 32 | 32 | 62% | 1 | 3 |
| Benfica | 34 | 38 | 36 | 10 | 15 | 49% | 3 | 2 |
| Casa Pia | 34 | 16 | 15 | 25 | 32 | 48% | 2 | 5 |
| Estoril | 34 | 26 | 28 | 31 | 26 | 52% | 5 | 3 |
| Estrela | 34 | 19 | 19 | 25 | 31 | 50% | 4 | 3 |
| Famalicao | 34 | 15 | 27 | 13 | 16 | 64% | 3 | 1 |
| Gil Vicente | 34 | 24 | 23 | 17 | 21 | 49% | 3 | 4 |
| Guimaraes | 34 | 17 | 22 | 23 | 28 | 56% | 2 | 2 |
| Moreirense | 34 | 15 | 22 | 19 | 30 | 59% | 3 | 2 |
| Nacional | 34 | 15 | 22 | 18 | 27 | 59% | 3 | 3 |
| Porto | 34 | 29 | 37 | 4 | 14 | 56% | 0 | 2 |
| Rio Ave | 34 | 13 | 22 | 25 | 32 | 63% | 4 | 3 |
| Santa Clara | 34 | 13 | 19 | 21 | 20 | 59% | 2 | 1 |
| Sp Braga | 34 | 37 | 27 | 18 | 18 | 42% | 4 | 4 |
| Sp Lisbon | 34 | 38 | 51 | 8 | 16 | 57% | 1 | 3 |
| Tondela | 34 | 10 | 17 | 22 | 33 | 63% | 2 | 0 |
| League total | 612 | 367 | 454 | 367 | 454 | 55% | 47 | 47 |
Home advantage
Realized home vs away results (2025/26). "Edge" = home PPG − away PPG. Descriptive, not a prediction.
League-wide home edge (PPG) over 26 seasons — the long decline:
| Team | HP | Home win percentage. | Home points per game (3 for a win, 1 for a draw). | Away points per game. | Home edge: home points per game minus away points per game — the size of the team's home advantage. Caveated when either home or away matches are few. | Home goal difference per game. | Away goal difference per game. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVS | 17 | 12% | 0.71 | 0.53 | +0.18 | -0.71 | -1.65 |
| Alverca | 17 | 41% | 1.53 | 0.76 | +0.76 | -0.29 | -0.71 |
| Arouca | 17 | 41% | 1.47 | 1.00 | +0.47 | -0.18 | -0.82 |
| Benfica | 17 | 65% | 2.29 | 2.41 | -0.12 | +1.65 | +1.24 |
| Casa Pia | 17 | 12% | 0.88 | 0.88 | 0.00 | -0.47 | -1.06 |
| Estoril | 17 | 35% | 1.35 | 0.94 | +0.41 | +0.18 | -0.35 |
| Estrela | 17 | 24% | 1.06 | 0.71 | +0.35 | -0.18 | -0.88 |
| Famalicao | 17 | 53% | 1.82 | 1.47 | +0.35 | +0.88 | -0.12 |
| Gil Vicente | 17 | 53% | 1.76 | 1.18 | +0.59 | +0.65 | -0.12 |
| Guimaraes | 17 | 47% | 1.65 | 0.82 | +0.82 | +0.41 | -1.12 |
| Moreirense | 17 | 47% | 1.59 | 0.94 | +0.65 | -0.06 | -0.65 |
| Nacional | 17 | 35% | 1.18 | 0.82 | +0.35 | 0.00 | -0.47 |
| Porto | 17 | 82% | 2.65 | 2.53 | +0.12 | +1.59 | +1.24 |
| Rio Ave | 17 | 18% | 0.88 | 1.24 | -0.35 | -0.71 | -0.59 |
| Santa Clara | 17 | 41% | 1.35 | 0.76 | +0.59 | 0.00 | -0.53 |
| Sp Braga | 17 | 47% | 1.76 | 1.71 | +0.06 | +0.94 | +0.71 |
| Sp Lisbon | 17 | 76% | 2.41 | 2.41 | 0.00 | +2.35 | +1.47 |
| Tondela | 17 | 12% | 0.76 | 0.88 | -0.12 | -0.47 | -1.18 |
| League total | 306 | 41% | 1.51 | 1.22 | +0.28 | +0.31 | -0.31 |
Corners
Descriptive — actual corner counts (2025/26), shown where available. Not a prediction.
League-wide corners per team, per match over 9 seasons — the decline:
| Team | Pld | Corners won (total). | Corners conceded (total). | Corners won per game. | Corners conceded per game. | Home corners won per game. | Away corners won per game. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVS | 34 | 125 | 199 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 3.9 |
| Alverca | 34 | 149 | 154 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.1 |
| Arouca | 34 | 126 | 179 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 4.1 | 3.4 |
| Benfica | 34 | 245 | 95 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 7.5 | 6.9 |
| Casa Pia | 34 | 137 | 200 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 4.5 |
| Estoril | 34 | 149 | 167 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 4.1 |
| Estrela | 34 | 113 | 196 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
| Famalicao | 34 | 186 | 168 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 5.2 |
| Gil Vicente | 34 | 189 | 134 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 5.7 |
| Guimaraes | 34 | 151 | 133 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
| Moreirense | 34 | 124 | 162 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 3.3 |
| Nacional | 34 | 149 | 217 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 4.0 |
| Porto | 34 | 192 | 101 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 5.6 | 5.6 |
| Rio Ave | 34 | 145 | 223 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 3.4 |
| Santa Clara | 34 | 157 | 149 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Sp Braga | 34 | 180 | 107 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| Sp Lisbon | 34 | 233 | 104 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 7.5 |
| Tondela | 34 | 135 | 197 | 4.0 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| League total | 612 | 2885 | 2885 | 4.7 | 4.7 | — | — |