Scottish League Two
xG Table · 2025/26
Model figures — expected goals scored by TrueGoals, not actual match xG.
Season leaders
Top xG
- Spartans56.9
- East Kilbride55.1
- Clyde53.1
- Edinburgh City48.8
- Elgin48.2
Biggest over-performers
- East Kilbride+15.3
- Dumbarton+3.1
- Spartans+2.3
- Forfar-0.1
- Stranraer-1.8
Biggest under-performers
- Edinburgh City-10.7
- Annan Athletic-5.9
- Elgin-4.8
- Clyde-3.5
- Stirling-2.6
Best defences (lowest xGA)
- Spartans37.8
- Clyde38.5
- Annan Athletic44.0
- Forfar45.3
- East Kilbride47.2
Biggest xG difference
- Spartans+19.1
- Clyde+14.7
- East Kilbride+7.9
- Forfar+1.7
- Edinburgh City+0.2
| # | Team | Matches played. | Goals scored (actual). | Expected goals for: goals our model (TrueGoals) says this team's performances typically produce. | Expected goals against: same, for goals conceded. | Expected goal difference (xGF minus xGA). | Actual league points. | Expected points: points the team “should” have won based on xG, via match simulation. | Actual points minus expected points. Positive = over-performing its underlying numbers (may regress); negative = under-performing. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spartans | 36 | 60 | 56.9 | 37.8 | +19.1 | 64 | 61.7 | +2.3 |
| 2 | Clyde | 36 | 58 | 53.1 | 38.5 | +14.7 | 56 | 59.5 | -3.5 |
| 3 | East Kilbride | 36 | 77 | 55.1 | 47.2 | +7.9 | 69 | 53.7 | +15.3 |
| 4 | Forfar | 36 | 51 | 47.0 | 45.3 | +1.7 | 50 | 50.1 | -0.1 |
| 5 | Edinburgh City | 36 | 45 | 48.8 | 48.6 | +0.2 | 39 | 49.7 | -10.7 |
| 6 | Stranraer | 36 | 46 | 48.0 | 48.9 | -0.9 | 47 | 48.8 | -1.8 |
| 7 | Annan Athletic | 36 | 47 | 40.7 | 44.0 | -3.3 | 41 | 46.9 | -5.9 |
| 8 | Elgin | 36 | 51 | 48.2 | 52.3 | -4.1 | 44 | 48.8 | -4.8 |
| 9 | Stirling | 36 | 46 | 46.0 | 61.8 | -15.9 | 38 | 40.6 | -2.6 |
| 10 | Dumbarton | 36 | 47 | 34.6 | 54.0 | -19.4 | 40 | 36.9 | +3.1 |
| 1 | Spartans | 18 | 22 | 29.5 | 18.0 | +11.5 | 31 | 32.0 | -1.0 |
| 2 | Clyde | 18 | 30 | 28.3 | 17.5 | +10.8 | 33 | 32.4 | +0.6 |
| 3 | East Kilbride | 18 | 41 | 30.7 | 22.2 | +8.5 | 36 | 29.5 | +6.5 |
| 4 | Forfar | 18 | 30 | 27.6 | 19.4 | +8.2 | 32 | 29.9 | +2.1 |
| 5 | Edinburgh City | 18 | 26 | 29.1 | 24.5 | +4.5 | 14 | 27.7 | -13.7 |
| 6 | Stranraer | 18 | 22 | 22.9 | 19.6 | +3.3 | 22 | 26.5 | -4.5 |
| 7 | Annan Athletic | 18 | 31 | 23.9 | 21.9 | +2.0 | 28 | 26.3 | +1.7 |
| 8 | Elgin | 18 | 28 | 25.1 | 23.5 | +1.6 | 27 | 27.0 | 0.0 |
| 9 | Stirling | 18 | 19 | 23.1 | 28.1 | -5.0 | 17 | 21.5 | -4.5 |
| 10 | Dumbarton | 18 | 26 | 18.0 | 25.7 | -7.6 | 25 | 19.8 | +5.2 |
| 1 | Spartans | 18 | 38 | 27.4 | 19.8 | +7.6 | 33 | 29.7 | +3.3 |
| 2 | Clyde | 18 | 28 | 24.9 | 21.0 | +3.9 | 23 | 27.1 | -4.1 |
| 3 | East Kilbride | 18 | 36 | 24.4 | 25.0 | -0.6 | 33 | 24.2 | +8.8 |
| 4 | Stranraer | 18 | 24 | 25.1 | 29.3 | -4.2 | 25 | 22.3 | +2.7 |
| 5 | Edinburgh City | 18 | 19 | 19.8 | 24.1 | -4.3 | 25 | 22.0 | +3.0 |
| 6 | Annan Athletic | 18 | 16 | 16.8 | 22.1 | -5.3 | 13 | 20.6 | -7.6 |
| 7 | Elgin | 18 | 23 | 23.1 | 28.8 | -5.7 | 17 | 21.9 | -4.9 |
| 8 | Forfar | 18 | 21 | 19.4 | 25.9 | -6.5 | 18 | 20.2 | -2.2 |
| 9 | Stirling | 18 | 27 | 22.9 | 33.7 | -10.9 | 21 | 19.0 | +2.0 |
| 10 | Dumbarton | 18 | 21 | 16.5 | 28.3 | -11.8 | 15 | 17.1 | -2.1 |
First half / second half
Descriptive — actual half-time and full-time facts (2025/26), not predictions.
| Team | Pld | Goals scored in the first half. | Goals scored in the second half (full-time minus half-time). | Goals conceded in the first half. | Goals conceded in the second half. | Share of the team's goals scored in the second half. Shown only when there are enough goals to be meaningful. | Comebacks: matches the team was trailing at half-time but ended up winning or drawing. | Leads lost: matches the team was leading at half-time but ended up drawing or losing. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annan Athletic | 36 | 22 | 25 | 27 | 31 | 53% | 2 | 4 |
| Clyde | 36 | 26 | 32 | 20 | 21 | 55% | 5 | 3 |
| Dumbarton | 36 | 19 | 28 | 34 | 27 | 60% | 7 | 1 |
| East Kilbride | 36 | 47 | 30 | 24 | 22 | 39% | 1 | 4 |
| Edinburgh City | 36 | 25 | 20 | 33 | 39 | 44% | 3 | 3 |
| Elgin | 36 | 20 | 31 | 24 | 31 | 61% | 4 | 5 |
| Forfar | 36 | 33 | 18 | 19 | 28 | 35% | 0 | 7 |
| Spartans | 36 | 25 | 35 | 20 | 19 | 58% | 2 | 1 |
| Stirling | 36 | 16 | 30 | 36 | 27 | 65% | 4 | 3 |
| Stranraer | 36 | 25 | 21 | 21 | 25 | 46% | 4 | 1 |
| League total | 360 | 258 | 270 | 258 | 270 | 51% | 32 | 32 |
Home advantage
Realized home vs away results (2025/26). "Edge" = home PPG − away PPG. Descriptive, not a prediction.
League-wide home edge (PPG) over 26 seasons — the long decline:
| Team | HP | Home win percentage. | Home points per game (3 for a win, 1 for a draw). | Away points per game. | Home edge: home points per game minus away points per game — the size of the team's home advantage. Caveated when either home or away matches are few. | Home goal difference per game. | Away goal difference per game. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annan Athletic | 18 | 39% | 1.56 | 0.72 | +0.83 | 0.00 | -0.61 |
| Clyde | 18 | 50% | 1.83 | 1.28 | +0.56 | +0.67 | +0.28 |
| Dumbarton | 18 | 39% | 1.39 | 0.83 | +0.56 | +0.11 | -0.89 |
| East Kilbride | 18 | 61% | 2.00 | 1.83 | +0.17 | +1.00 | +0.72 |
| Edinburgh City | 18 | 17% | 0.78 | 1.39 | -0.61 | -0.78 | -0.72 |
| Elgin | 18 | 44% | 1.50 | 0.94 | +0.56 | +0.11 | -0.33 |
| Forfar | 18 | 50% | 1.78 | 1.00 | +0.78 | +0.50 | -0.28 |
| Spartans | 18 | 50% | 1.72 | 1.83 | -0.11 | +0.28 | +0.89 |
| Stirling | 18 | 17% | 0.94 | 1.17 | -0.22 | -0.61 | -0.33 |
| Stranraer | 18 | 28% | 1.22 | 1.39 | -0.17 | -0.06 | +0.06 |
| League total | 180 | 39% | 1.47 | 1.24 | +0.23 | +0.12 | -0.12 |
Corners
Descriptive — actual corner counts (2025/26), shown where available. Not a prediction.
League-wide corners per team, per match over 11 seasons — the decline:
| Team | Pld | Corners won (total). | Corners conceded (total). | Corners won per game. | Corners conceded per game. | Home corners won per game. | Away corners won per game. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annan Athletic | 36 | 182 | 176 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 4.6 |
| Clyde | 36 | 182 | 170 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 4.7 |
| Dumbarton | 36 | 213 | 173 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 5.2 |
| East Kilbride | 36 | 215 | 159 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 5.5 |
| Edinburgh City | 36 | 140 | 206 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 3.4 |
| Elgin | 36 | 189 | 191 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.2 |
| Forfar | 36 | 145 | 185 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 4.3 | 3.7 |
| Spartans | 36 | 193 | 144 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 5.8 |
| Stirling | 36 | 167 | 242 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 4.9 |
| Stranraer | 36 | 209 | 189 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 5.7 |
| League total | 360 | 1835 | 1835 | 5.1 | 5.1 | — | — |