Scottish Championship
xG Table · 2025/26
Model figures — expected goals scored by TrueGoals, not actual match xG.
Season leaders
Top xG
- St Johnstone51.7
- Partick47.9
- Dunfermline43.1
- Raith Rvs41.2
- Ayr40.4
Biggest over-performers
- St Johnstone+10.2
- Partick+9.7
- Arbroath+2.7
- Dunfermline+1.1
- Queens Park+0.9
Biggest under-performers
- Ayr-10.1
- Airdrie Utd-10.0
- Ross County-6.9
- Morton-6.0
- Raith Rvs-3.7
Best defences (lowest xGA)
- St Johnstone25.0
- Partick37.0
- Arbroath38.5
- Ayr39.6
- Dunfermline41.1
Biggest xG difference
- St Johnstone+26.7
- Partick+10.9
- Dunfermline+2.1
- Ayr+0.8
- Arbroath+0.5
| # | Team | Matches played. | Goals scored (actual). | Expected goals for: goals our model (TrueGoals) says this team's performances typically produce. | Expected goals against: same, for goals conceded. | Expected goal difference (xGF minus xGA). | Actual league points. | Expected points: points the team “should” have won based on xG, via match simulation. | Actual points minus expected points. Positive = over-performing its underlying numbers (may regress); negative = under-performing. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Johnstone | 36 | 67 | 51.7 | 25.0 | +26.7 | 77 | 66.8 | +10.2 |
| 2 | Partick | 36 | 53 | 47.9 | 37.0 | +10.9 | 66 | 56.3 | +9.7 |
| 3 | Dunfermline | 36 | 52 | 43.1 | 41.1 | +2.1 | 51 | 49.9 | +1.1 |
| 4 | Ayr | 36 | 38 | 40.4 | 39.6 | +0.8 | 39 | 49.1 | -10.1 |
| 5 | Arbroath | 36 | 43 | 39.1 | 38.5 | +0.5 | 52 | 49.3 | +2.7 |
| 6 | Raith Rvs | 36 | 43 | 41.2 | 42.3 | -1.1 | 45 | 48.7 | -3.7 |
| 7 | Airdrie Utd | 36 | 35 | 38.4 | 42.6 | -4.1 | 36 | 46.0 | -10.0 |
| 8 | Morton | 36 | 36 | 38.5 | 48.3 | -9.8 | 38 | 44.0 | -6.0 |
| 9 | Ross County | 36 | 36 | 35.0 | 47.0 | -12.0 | 34 | 40.9 | -6.9 |
| 10 | Queens Park | 36 | 35 | 32.6 | 46.5 | -13.9 | 41 | 40.1 | +0.9 |
| 1 | St Johnstone | 18 | 37 | 27.6 | 11.6 | +15.9 | 39 | 34.8 | +4.2 |
| 2 | Partick | 18 | 30 | 25.1 | 14.4 | +10.7 | 42 | 31.4 | +10.6 |
| 3 | Dunfermline | 18 | 24 | 25.1 | 20.8 | +4.3 | 26 | 27.3 | -1.3 |
| 4 | Raith Rvs | 18 | 34 | 24.8 | 21.3 | +3.5 | 30 | 27.2 | +2.8 |
| 5 | Arbroath | 18 | 27 | 19.2 | 16.1 | +3.0 | 32 | 26.8 | +5.2 |
| 6 | Ayr | 18 | 17 | 20.7 | 18.9 | +1.8 | 19 | 25.5 | -6.5 |
| 7 | Airdrie Utd | 18 | 16 | 17.7 | 19.8 | -2.1 | 17 | 22.8 | -5.8 |
| 8 | Morton | 18 | 16 | 21.5 | 23.9 | -2.4 | 23 | 23.7 | -0.7 |
| 9 | Ross County | 18 | 24 | 20.3 | 23.6 | -3.3 | 21 | 22.4 | -1.4 |
| 10 | Queens Park | 18 | 16 | 15.2 | 20.3 | -5.1 | 22 | 20.2 | +1.8 |
| 1 | St Johnstone | 18 | 30 | 24.1 | 13.4 | +10.7 | 38 | 32.0 | +6.0 |
| 2 | Partick | 18 | 23 | 22.8 | 22.6 | +0.2 | 24 | 24.9 | -0.9 |
| 3 | Ayr | 18 | 21 | 19.7 | 20.8 | -1.0 | 20 | 23.6 | -3.6 |
| 4 | Airdrie Utd | 18 | 19 | 20.7 | 22.8 | -2.0 | 19 | 23.2 | -4.2 |
| 5 | Dunfermline | 18 | 28 | 18.0 | 20.3 | -2.3 | 25 | 22.6 | +2.4 |
| 6 | Arbroath | 18 | 16 | 19.9 | 22.4 | -2.5 | 20 | 22.6 | -2.6 |
| 7 | Raith Rvs | 18 | 9 | 16.4 | 21.0 | -4.6 | 15 | 21.4 | -6.4 |
| 8 | Morton | 18 | 20 | 17.0 | 24.4 | -7.4 | 15 | 20.3 | -5.3 |
| 9 | Ross County | 18 | 12 | 14.7 | 23.4 | -8.7 | 13 | 18.5 | -5.5 |
| 10 | Queens Park | 18 | 19 | 17.4 | 26.2 | -8.8 | 19 | 19.9 | -0.9 |
First half / second half
Descriptive — actual half-time and full-time facts (2025/26), not predictions.
| Team | Pld | Goals scored in the first half. | Goals scored in the second half (full-time minus half-time). | Goals conceded in the first half. | Goals conceded in the second half. | Share of the team's goals scored in the second half. Shown only when there are enough goals to be meaningful. | Comebacks: matches the team was trailing at half-time but ended up winning or drawing. | Leads lost: matches the team was leading at half-time but ended up drawing or losing. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airdrie Utd | 36 | 12 | 23 | 23 | 26 | 66% | 2 | 3 |
| Arbroath | 36 | 15 | 28 | 15 | 26 | 65% | 3 | 1 |
| Ayr | 36 | 25 | 13 | 19 | 28 | 34% | 4 | 6 |
| Dunfermline | 36 | 23 | 29 | 23 | 18 | 56% | 5 | 1 |
| Morton | 36 | 19 | 17 | 19 | 33 | 47% | 3 | 7 |
| Partick | 36 | 28 | 25 | 17 | 19 | 47% | 6 | 5 |
| Queens Park | 36 | 17 | 18 | 25 | 23 | 51% | 2 | 4 |
| Raith Rvs | 36 | 13 | 30 | 23 | 19 | 70% | 3 | 1 |
| Ross County | 36 | 19 | 17 | 27 | 30 | 47% | 1 | 5 |
| St Johnstone | 36 | 33 | 34 | 13 | 12 | 51% | 5 | 1 |
| League total | 360 | 204 | 234 | 204 | 234 | 53% | 34 | 34 |
Home advantage
Realized home vs away results (2025/26). "Edge" = home PPG − away PPG. Descriptive, not a prediction.
League-wide home edge (PPG) over 26 seasons — the long decline:
| Team | HP | Home win percentage. | Home points per game (3 for a win, 1 for a draw). | Away points per game. | Home edge: home points per game minus away points per game — the size of the team's home advantage. Caveated when either home or away matches are few. | Home goal difference per game. | Away goal difference per game. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airdrie Utd | 18 | 17% | 0.94 | 1.06 | -0.11 | -0.44 | -0.33 |
| Arbroath | 18 | 44% | 1.78 | 1.11 | +0.67 | +0.39 | -0.28 |
| Ayr | 18 | 22% | 1.06 | 1.11 | -0.06 | -0.28 | -0.22 |
| Dunfermline | 18 | 39% | 1.44 | 1.39 | +0.06 | +0.28 | +0.33 |
| Morton | 18 | 28% | 1.28 | 0.83 | +0.44 | -0.17 | -0.72 |
| Partick | 18 | 67% | 2.33 | 1.33 | +1.00 | +1.00 | -0.06 |
| Queens Park | 18 | 28% | 1.22 | 1.06 | +0.17 | -0.22 | -0.50 |
| Raith Rvs | 18 | 50% | 1.67 | 0.83 | +0.83 | +0.67 | -0.61 |
| Ross County | 18 | 33% | 1.17 | 0.72 | +0.44 | -0.22 | -0.94 |
| St Johnstone | 18 | 61% | 2.17 | 2.11 | +0.06 | +1.44 | +0.89 |
| League total | 180 | 39% | 1.51 | 1.16 | +0.35 | +0.24 | -0.24 |
Corners
Descriptive — actual corner counts (2025/26), shown where available. Not a prediction.
League-wide corners per team, per match over 11 seasons — the decline:
| Team | Pld | Corners won (total). | Corners conceded (total). | Corners won per game. | Corners conceded per game. | Home corners won per game. | Away corners won per game. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airdrie Utd | 36 | 151 | 234 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 3.5 |
| Arbroath | 36 | 179 | 154 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 4.7 |
| Ayr | 36 | 191 | 169 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 5.1 |
| Dunfermline | 36 | 159 | 175 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 4.7 |
| Morton | 36 | 159 | 214 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| Partick | 36 | 211 | 177 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 5.4 |
| Queens Park | 36 | 101 | 213 | 2.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 2.9 |
| Raith Rvs | 36 | 190 | 154 | 5.3 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.6 |
| Ross County | 36 | 171 | 177 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.6 |
| St Johnstone | 36 | 272 | 117 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 8.6 | 6.5 |
| League total | 360 | 1784 | 1784 | 5.0 | 5.0 | — | — |