Scottish Premiership
xG Table · 2025/26
Model figures — expected goals scored by TrueGoals, not actual match xG.
Season leaders
Top xG
- Rangers63.0
- Celtic55.8
- Motherwell52.8
- Hearts52.4
- Dundee United48.0
Biggest over-performers
- Hearts+15.1
- Celtic+12.4
- Falkirk+4.4
- Hibernian+4.0
- Motherwell+3.7
Biggest under-performers
- Livingston-21.9
- St Mirren-12.8
- Aberdeen-6.8
- Kilmarnock-5.0
- Dundee United-3.0
Best defences (lowest xGA)
- Celtic28.8
- Hearts32.3
- Rangers33.0
- Hibernian44.3
- Motherwell45.3
Biggest xG difference
- Rangers+30.0
- Celtic+27.0
- Hearts+20.1
- Motherwell+7.5
- Hibernian+3.4
| # | Team | Matches played. | Goals scored (actual). | Expected goals for: goals our model (TrueGoals) says this team's performances typically produce. | Expected goals against: same, for goals conceded. | Expected goal difference (xGF minus xGA). | Actual league points. | Expected points: points the team “should” have won based on xG, via match simulation. | Actual points minus expected points. Positive = over-performing its underlying numbers (may regress); negative = under-performing. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rangers | 38 | 76 | 63.0 | 33.0 | +30.0 | 72 | 69.7 | +2.3 |
| 2 | Celtic | 38 | 73 | 55.8 | 28.8 | +27.0 | 82 | 69.6 | +12.4 |
| 3 | Hearts | 38 | 67 | 52.4 | 32.3 | +20.1 | 80 | 64.9 | +15.1 |
| 4 | Motherwell | 38 | 59 | 52.8 | 45.3 | +7.5 | 61 | 57.3 | +3.7 |
| 5 | Hibernian | 38 | 58 | 47.7 | 44.3 | +3.4 | 57 | 53.0 | +4.0 |
| 6 | Aberdeen | 38 | 40 | 39.5 | 46.5 | -7.0 | 40 | 46.8 | -6.8 |
| 7 | Dundee United | 38 | 49 | 48.0 | 55.8 | -7.9 | 45 | 48.0 | -3.0 |
| 8 | St Mirren | 38 | 30 | 39.8 | 47.7 | -7.9 | 34 | 46.8 | -12.8 |
| 9 | Falkirk | 38 | 50 | 42.2 | 53.2 | -11.0 | 49 | 44.6 | +4.4 |
| 10 | Kilmarnock | 38 | 50 | 45.5 | 60.0 | -14.5 | 40 | 45.0 | -5.0 |
| 11 | Livingston | 38 | 40 | 39.1 | 54.2 | -15.1 | 21 | 42.9 | -21.9 |
| 12 | Dundee | 38 | 42 | 37.8 | 62.4 | -24.6 | 42 | 38.4 | +3.6 |
| 1 | Celtic | 19 | 43 | 34.2 | 10.9 | +23.3 | 46 | 41.3 | +4.7 |
| 2 | Rangers | 19 | 39 | 33.1 | 13.9 | +19.2 | 38 | 37.7 | +0.3 |
| 3 | Hearts | 19 | 37 | 28.4 | 11.6 | +16.9 | 49 | 37.2 | +11.8 |
| 4 | Motherwell | 19 | 32 | 30.6 | 17.9 | +12.8 | 36 | 34.1 | +1.9 |
| 5 | Hibernian | 19 | 32 | 26.5 | 21.0 | +5.5 | 30 | 29.0 | +1.0 |
| 6 | Aberdeen | 19 | 28 | 24.6 | 20.7 | +3.9 | 26 | 28.4 | -2.4 |
| 7 | St Mirren | 19 | 11 | 21.6 | 20.4 | +1.2 | 21 | 26.9 | -5.9 |
| 8 | Dundee United | 19 | 24 | 24.6 | 24.2 | +0.3 | 28 | 27.0 | +1.0 |
| 9 | Falkirk | 20 | 33 | 24.9 | 25.8 | -0.8 | 26 | 26.6 | -0.6 |
| 10 | Kilmarnock | 19 | 28 | 25.4 | 26.3 | -0.9 | 25 | 26.2 | -1.2 |
| 11 | Livingston | 18 | 24 | 20.6 | 25.3 | -4.7 | 11 | 22.0 | -11.0 |
| 12 | Dundee | 19 | 31 | 21.0 | 30.1 | -9.1 | 31 | 21.6 | +9.4 |
| 1 | Rangers | 19 | 37 | 29.9 | 19.1 | +10.8 | 34 | 32.0 | +2.0 |
| 2 | Celtic | 19 | 30 | 21.6 | 17.9 | +3.7 | 36 | 28.3 | +7.7 |
| 3 | Hearts | 19 | 30 | 24.0 | 20.8 | +3.2 | 31 | 27.7 | +3.3 |
| 4 | Hibernian | 19 | 26 | 21.1 | 23.3 | -2.1 | 27 | 24.0 | +3.0 |
| 5 | Motherwell | 19 | 27 | 22.2 | 27.4 | -5.3 | 25 | 23.2 | +1.8 |
| 6 | Dundee United | 19 | 25 | 23.4 | 31.6 | -8.2 | 17 | 21.1 | -4.1 |
| 7 | St Mirren | 19 | 19 | 18.2 | 27.3 | -9.2 | 13 | 19.9 | -6.9 |
| 8 | Falkirk | 18 | 17 | 17.3 | 27.4 | -10.2 | 23 | 18.0 | +5.0 |
| 9 | Livingston | 20 | 16 | 18.5 | 28.9 | -10.5 | 10 | 20.9 | -10.9 |
| 10 | Aberdeen | 19 | 12 | 14.9 | 25.9 | -10.9 | 14 | 18.4 | -4.4 |
| 11 | Kilmarnock | 19 | 22 | 20.1 | 33.7 | -13.6 | 15 | 18.8 | -3.8 |
| 12 | Dundee | 19 | 11 | 16.8 | 32.3 | -15.5 | 11 | 16.7 | -5.7 |
First half / second half
Descriptive — actual half-time and full-time facts (2025/26), not predictions.
| Team | Pld | Goals scored in the first half. | Goals scored in the second half (full-time minus half-time). | Goals conceded in the first half. | Goals conceded in the second half. | Share of the team's goals scored in the second half. Shown only when there are enough goals to be meaningful. | Comebacks: matches the team was trailing at half-time but ended up winning or drawing. | Leads lost: matches the team was leading at half-time but ended up drawing or losing. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen | 38 | 18 | 22 | 23 | 32 | 55% | 2 | 2 |
| Celtic | 38 | 33 | 40 | 19 | 22 | 55% | 2 | 3 |
| Dundee | 38 | 21 | 21 | 29 | 32 | 50% | 4 | 2 |
| Dundee United | 38 | 19 | 30 | 27 | 33 | 61% | 4 | 5 |
| Falkirk | 38 | 22 | 28 | 34 | 28 | 56% | 5 | 2 |
| Hearts | 38 | 28 | 39 | 19 | 15 | 58% | 6 | 0 |
| Hibernian | 38 | 30 | 28 | 21 | 23 | 48% | 1 | 3 |
| Kilmarnock | 38 | 26 | 24 | 27 | 41 | 48% | 2 | 6 |
| Livingston | 38 | 17 | 23 | 35 | 40 | 58% | 5 | 5 |
| Motherwell | 38 | 28 | 31 | 11 | 25 | 53% | 3 | 3 |
| Rangers | 38 | 33 | 43 | 20 | 23 | 57% | 4 | 6 |
| St Mirren | 38 | 11 | 19 | 21 | 34 | 63% | 1 | 2 |
| League total | 456 | 286 | 348 | 286 | 348 | 55% | 39 | 39 |
Home advantage
Realized home vs away results (2025/26). "Edge" = home PPG − away PPG. Descriptive, not a prediction.
League-wide home edge (PPG) over 26 seasons — the long decline:
| Team | HP | Home win percentage. | Home points per game (3 for a win, 1 for a draw). | Away points per game. | Home edge: home points per game minus away points per game — the size of the team's home advantage. Caveated when either home or away matches are few. | Home goal difference per game. | Away goal difference per game. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen | 19 | 37% | 1.37 | 0.74 | +0.63 | +0.26 | -1.05 |
| Celtic | 19 | 79% | 2.42 | 1.89 | +0.53 | +1.47 | +0.21 |
| Dundee | 19 | 47% | 1.63 | 0.58 | +1.05 | +0.16 | -1.16 |
| Dundee United | 19 | 37% | 1.47 | 0.89 | +0.58 | +0.11 | -0.68 |
| Falkirk | 20 | 35% | 1.30 | 1.28 | +0.02 | -0.05 | -0.61 |
| Hearts | 19 | 79% | 2.58 | 1.63 | +0.95 | +1.37 | +0.37 |
| Hibernian | 19 | 42% | 1.58 | 1.42 | +0.16 | +0.68 | +0.05 |
| Kilmarnock | 19 | 37% | 1.32 | 0.79 | +0.53 | 0.00 | -0.95 |
| Livingston | 18 | 6% | 0.61 | 0.50 | +0.11 | -0.67 | -1.15 |
| Motherwell | 19 | 53% | 1.89 | 1.32 | +0.58 | +1.00 | +0.21 |
| Rangers | 19 | 58% | 2.00 | 1.79 | +0.21 | +0.95 | +0.79 |
| St Mirren | 19 | 26% | 1.11 | 0.68 | +0.42 | -0.58 | -0.74 |
| League total | 228 | 45% | 1.61 | 1.12 | +0.49 | +0.39 | -0.39 |
Corners
Descriptive — actual corner counts (2025/26), shown where available. Not a prediction.
League-wide corners per team, per match over 26 seasons — the decline:
| Team | Pld | Corners won (total). | Corners conceded (total). | Corners won per game. | Corners conceded per game. | Home corners won per game. | Away corners won per game. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aberdeen | 38 | 179 | 201 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.6 |
| Celtic | 38 | 253 | 152 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 7.7 | 5.6 |
| Dundee | 38 | 148 | 212 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 3.3 |
| Dundee United | 38 | 173 | 208 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 3.7 |
| Falkirk | 38 | 182 | 182 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 5.1 |
| Hearts | 38 | 212 | 170 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 5.7 |
| Hibernian | 38 | 187 | 217 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 4.3 |
| Kilmarnock | 38 | 164 | 204 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 3.8 |
| Livingston | 38 | 177 | 221 | 4.7 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.0 |
| Motherwell | 38 | 146 | 160 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| Rangers | 38 | 255 | 149 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 6.8 |
| St Mirren | 38 | 210 | 210 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| League total | 456 | 2286 | 2286 | 5.0 | 5.0 | — | — |