Super League
xG Table · 2025/26
Model figures — expected goals scored by TrueGoals, not actual match xG.
Season leaders
Top xG
- Kifisia46.4
- Olympiakos39.9
- Levadeiakos39.5
- Panathinaikos38.2
- Larisa37.3
Biggest over-performers
- AEK+19.1
- PAOK+11.1
- Olympiakos+8.6
- OFI Crete+7.0
- Levadeiakos+6.1
Biggest under-performers
- Larisa-15.1
- Kifisia-12.1
- Asteras Tripolis-9.3
- Panserraikos-5.8
- Volos NFC-4.6
Best defences (lowest xGA)
- Olympiakos19.3
- PAOK20.8
- AEK22.3
- Panathinaikos22.9
- Aris29.5
Biggest xG difference
- Olympiakos+20.7
- Panathinaikos+15.2
- AEK+14.5
- PAOK+14.1
- Kifisia+7.3
| # | Team | Matches played. | Goals scored (actual). | Expected goals for: goals our model (TrueGoals) says this team's performances typically produce. | Expected goals against: same, for goals conceded. | Expected goal difference (xGF minus xGA). | Actual league points. | Expected points: points the team “should” have won based on xG, via match simulation. | Actual points minus expected points. Positive = over-performing its underlying numbers (may regress); negative = under-performing. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olympiakos | 32 | 51 | 39.9 | 19.3 | +20.7 | 66 | 57.4 | +8.6 |
| 2 | Panathinaikos | 32 | 47 | 38.2 | 22.9 | +15.2 | 52 | 53.2 | -1.2 |
| 3 | AEK | 32 | 57 | 36.8 | 22.3 | +14.5 | 72 | 52.9 | +19.1 |
| 4 | PAOK | 32 | 59 | 34.9 | 20.8 | +14.1 | 64 | 52.9 | +11.1 |
| 5 | Kifisia | 36 | 40 | 46.4 | 39.1 | +7.3 | 41 | 53.1 | -12.1 |
| 6 | Aris | 32 | 34 | 35.8 | 29.5 | +6.2 | 46 | 46.4 | -0.4 |
| 7 | Levadeiakos | 32 | 63 | 39.5 | 34.6 | +4.8 | 52 | 45.9 | +6.1 |
| 8 | Atromitos | 36 | 49 | 35.4 | 37.1 | -1.7 | 46 | 46.7 | -0.7 |
| 9 | Asteras Tripolis | 36 | 36 | 33.8 | 37.6 | -3.8 | 36 | 45.3 | -9.3 |
| 10 | Larisa | 36 | 34 | 37.3 | 43.9 | -6.5 | 30 | 45.1 | -15.1 |
| 11 | Volos NFC | 32 | 33 | 31.7 | 42.8 | -11.1 | 32 | 36.6 | -4.6 |
| 12 | Panetolikos | 36 | 35 | 31.7 | 49.0 | -17.3 | 36 | 38.5 | -2.5 |
| 13 | Panserraikos | 36 | 25 | 26.2 | 47.3 | -21.1 | 29 | 34.8 | -5.8 |
| 14 | OFI Crete | 32 | 43 | 31.6 | 53.0 | -21.4 | 39 | 32.0 | +7.0 |
| 1 | PAOK | 16 | 31 | 20.4 | 7.0 | +13.4 | 40 | 31.4 | +8.6 |
| 2 | Panathinaikos | 16 | 27 | 22.2 | 9.0 | +13.2 | 30 | 30.1 | -0.1 |
| 3 | Olympiakos | 16 | 26 | 20.1 | 7.2 | +12.9 | 34 | 30.3 | +3.7 |
| 4 | AEK | 16 | 31 | 21.3 | 9.7 | +11.6 | 41 | 30.3 | +10.7 |
| 5 | Kifisia | 18 | 21 | 26.6 | 16.8 | +9.8 | 21 | 30.3 | -9.3 |
| 6 | Levadeiakos | 16 | 41 | 24.3 | 15.5 | +8.8 | 33 | 27.1 | +5.9 |
| 7 | Aris | 16 | 19 | 22.4 | 13.8 | +8.6 | 24 | 26.8 | -2.8 |
| 8 | Asteras Tripolis | 18 | 26 | 19.7 | 16.8 | +2.9 | 24 | 26.1 | -2.1 |
| 9 | Atromitos | 18 | 25 | 20.0 | 18.5 | +1.5 | 21 | 24.7 | -3.7 |
| 10 | Larisa | 18 | 17 | 20.0 | 19.0 | +0.9 | 17 | 25.4 | -8.4 |
| 11 | OFI Crete | 16 | 25 | 16.6 | 21.6 | -4.9 | 24 | 18.3 | +5.7 |
| 12 | Volos NFC | 16 | 16 | 16.6 | 22.3 | -5.7 | 20 | 18.4 | +1.6 |
| 13 | Panetolikos | 18 | 20 | 16.0 | 21.7 | -5.7 | 15 | 20.6 | -5.6 |
| 14 | Panserraikos | 18 | 11 | 13.6 | 20.4 | -6.8 | 14 | 18.8 | -4.8 |
| 1 | Olympiakos | 16 | 25 | 19.8 | 12.0 | +7.8 | 32 | 27.1 | +4.9 |
| 2 | AEK | 16 | 26 | 15.5 | 12.6 | +2.9 | 31 | 22.6 | +8.4 |
| 3 | Panathinaikos | 16 | 20 | 16.0 | 13.9 | +2.1 | 22 | 23.1 | -1.1 |
| 4 | PAOK | 16 | 28 | 14.5 | 13.8 | +0.6 | 24 | 21.5 | +2.5 |
| 5 | Aris | 16 | 15 | 13.4 | 15.8 | -2.4 | 22 | 19.5 | +2.5 |
| 6 | Kifisia | 18 | 19 | 19.8 | 22.3 | -2.5 | 20 | 22.8 | -2.8 |
| 7 | Atromitos | 18 | 24 | 15.4 | 18.6 | -3.2 | 25 | 22.0 | +3.0 |
| 8 | Levadeiakos | 16 | 22 | 15.2 | 19.1 | -4.0 | 19 | 18.8 | +0.2 |
| 9 | Volos NFC | 16 | 17 | 15.1 | 20.4 | -5.3 | 12 | 18.2 | -6.2 |
| 10 | Asteras Tripolis | 18 | 10 | 14.1 | 20.8 | -6.7 | 12 | 19.2 | -7.2 |
| 11 | Larisa | 18 | 17 | 17.4 | 24.9 | -7.5 | 13 | 19.7 | -6.7 |
| 12 | Panetolikos | 18 | 15 | 15.7 | 27.4 | -11.6 | 21 | 17.9 | +3.1 |
| 13 | Panserraikos | 18 | 14 | 12.5 | 26.9 | -14.3 | 15 | 16.0 | -1.0 |
| 14 | OFI Crete | 16 | 18 | 15.0 | 31.4 | -16.4 | 15 | 13.7 | +1.3 |
First half / second half
Descriptive — actual half-time and full-time facts (2025/26), not predictions.
| Team | Pld | Goals scored in the first half. | Goals scored in the second half (full-time minus half-time). | Goals conceded in the first half. | Goals conceded in the second half. | Share of the team's goals scored in the second half. Shown only when there are enough goals to be meaningful. | Comebacks: matches the team was trailing at half-time but ended up winning or drawing. | Leads lost: matches the team was leading at half-time but ended up drawing or losing. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK | 32 | 20 | 37 | 9 | 11 | 65% | 4 | 0 |
| Aris | 32 | 16 | 18 | 12 | 20 | 53% | 2 | 5 |
| Asteras Tripolis | 36 | 18 | 18 | 25 | 24 | 50% | 2 | 4 |
| Atromitos | 36 | 29 | 20 | 17 | 25 | 41% | 1 | 5 |
| Kifisia | 36 | 20 | 20 | 24 | 27 | 50% | 2 | 4 |
| Larisa | 36 | 13 | 21 | 31 | 25 | 62% | 5 | 0 |
| Levadeiakos | 32 | 24 | 39 | 23 | 24 | 62% | 7 | 0 |
| OFI Crete | 32 | 25 | 18 | 23 | 32 | 42% | 0 | 3 |
| Olympiakos | 32 | 21 | 30 | 4 | 13 | 59% | 0 | 2 |
| PAOK | 32 | 30 | 29 | 11 | 14 | 49% | 1 | 4 |
| Panathinaikos | 32 | 23 | 24 | 15 | 18 | 51% | 2 | 2 |
| Panetolikos | 36 | 16 | 19 | 27 | 24 | 54% | 2 | 3 |
| Panserraikos | 36 | 11 | 14 | 36 | 37 | 56% | 4 | 1 |
| Volos NFC | 32 | 16 | 17 | 25 | 30 | 52% | 2 | 1 |
| League total | 472 | 282 | 324 | 282 | 324 | 53% | 34 | 34 |
Home advantage
Realized home vs away results (2025/26). "Edge" = home PPG − away PPG. Descriptive, not a prediction.
League-wide home edge (PPG) over 21 seasons — the long decline:
| Team | HP | Home win percentage. | Home points per game (3 for a win, 1 for a draw). | Away points per game. | Home edge: home points per game minus away points per game — the size of the team's home advantage. Caveated when either home or away matches are few. | Home goal difference per game. | Away goal difference per game. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK | 16 | 81% | 2.56 | 1.94 | +0.63 | +1.50 | +0.81 |
| Aris | 16 | 31% | 1.50 | 1.38 | +0.13 | +0.31 | -0.19 |
| Asteras Tripolis | 18 | 33% | 1.33 | 0.67 | +0.67 | +0.17 | -0.89 |
| Atromitos | 18 | 28% | 1.17 | 1.39 | -0.22 | +0.17 | +0.22 |
| Kifisia | 18 | 28% | 1.17 | 1.11 | +0.06 | -0.22 | -0.39 |
| Larisa | 18 | 17% | 0.94 | 0.72 | +0.22 | -0.56 | -0.67 |
| Levadeiakos | 16 | 63% | 2.06 | 1.19 | +0.88 | +1.31 | -0.31 |
| OFI Crete | 16 | 50% | 1.50 | 0.94 | +0.56 | +0.31 | -1.06 |
| Olympiakos | 16 | 63% | 2.13 | 2.00 | +0.13 | +1.19 | +0.94 |
| PAOK | 16 | 75% | 2.50 | 1.50 | +1.00 | +1.63 | +0.50 |
| Panathinaikos | 16 | 50% | 1.88 | 1.38 | +0.50 | +0.81 | +0.06 |
| Panetolikos | 18 | 22% | 0.83 | 1.17 | -0.33 | -0.61 | -0.28 |
| Panserraikos | 18 | 17% | 0.78 | 0.83 | -0.06 | -1.17 | -1.50 |
| Volos NFC | 16 | 31% | 1.25 | 0.75 | +0.50 | -0.44 | -0.94 |
| League total | 236 | 41% | 1.52 | 1.20 | +0.32 | +0.28 | -0.28 |
Corners
Descriptive — actual corner counts (2025/26), shown where available. Not a prediction.
League-wide corners per team, per match over 9 seasons — the decline:
| Team | Pld | Corners won (total). | Corners conceded (total). | Corners won per game. | Corners conceded per game. | Home corners won per game. | Away corners won per game. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK | 32 | 172 | 100 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 5.4 |
| Aris | 32 | 165 | 127 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 5.9 | 4.4 |
| Asteras Tripolis | 36 | 174 | 176 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 4.3 |
| Atromitos | 36 | 154 | 153 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 4.9 |
| Kifisia | 36 | 145 | 187 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 4.1 |
| Larisa | 36 | 134 | 178 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.9 |
| Levadeiakos | 32 | 139 | 142 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| OFI Crete | 32 | 93 | 174 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 2.8 |
| Olympiakos | 32 | 219 | 67 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 8.4 | 5.3 |
| PAOK | 32 | 173 | 115 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 6.4 | 4.4 |
| Panathinaikos | 32 | 139 | 103 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 3.8 |
| Panetolikos | 36 | 131 | 172 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 2.7 |
| Panserraikos | 36 | 96 | 210 | 2.7 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.9 |
| Volos NFC | 32 | 126 | 156 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 3.3 |
| League total | 472 | 2060 | 2060 | 4.4 | 4.4 | — | — |