League One

xG Table · 2025/26

Model figures — expected goals scored by TrueGoals, not actual match xG.

Season leaders

Top xG

Cardiff62.9
Lincoln59.7
Stockport58.5
Wycombe57.9
Bolton57.2

Biggest over-performers

Lincoln+28.0
Cardiff+15.2
Bradford+12.9
Stockport+12.8
Luton+7.9

Biggest under-performers

Best defences (lowest xGA)

Lincoln41.1
Stevenage42.0
Bolton43.9
Cardiff44.2
Wycombe45.8

Biggest xG difference

Cardiff+18.7
Lincoln+18.6
Bolton+13.4
Wycombe+12.1
Plymouth+8.5

#	Team
1	Cardiff	46	90	62.9	44.2	+18.7	91	75.8	+15.2
2	Lincoln	46	89	59.7	41.1	+18.6	103	75.0	+28.0
3	Bolton	46	70	57.2	43.9	+13.4	75	72.0	+3.0
4	Wycombe	46	69	57.9	45.8	+12.1	63	70.9	-7.9
5	Plymouth	46	75	56.2	47.7	+8.5	73	68.6	+4.4
6	Stevenage	46	49	49.8	42.0	+7.8	75	68.4	+6.6
7	Luton	46	68	50.2	45.8	+4.4	74	66.1	+7.9
8	Reading	46	64	51.3	48.4	+2.9	63	64.2	-1.2
9	Stockport	46	71	58.5	57.0	+1.6	77	64.2	+12.8
10	Bradford	46	58	49.8	48.4	+1.4	77	64.1	+12.9
11	Huddersfield	46	74	54.2	53.3	+1.0	67	63.0	+4.0
12	Doncaster	46	50	48.6	48.0	+0.6	60	62.0	-2.0
13	Mansfield	46	62	48.3	48.7	-0.4	65	62.0	+3.0
14	Barnsley	46	68	50.2	52.4	-2.3	59	61.6	-2.6
15	Burton	46	50	47.9	51.3	-3.4	54	59.5	-5.5
16	Wigan	46	49	45.0	49.7	-4.7	56	58.4	-2.4
17	Peterboro	46	64	55.6	60.9	-5.4	53	59.1	-6.1
18	Port Vale	46	36	42.4	48.0	-5.6	42	58.0	-16.0
19	Exeter	46	52	46.3	53.2	-7.0	49	58.1	-9.1
20	Leyton Orient	46	59	49.2	57.4	-8.2	52	57.8	-5.8
21	Blackpool	46	54	45.1	53.5	-8.3	60	56.6	+3.4
22	AFC Wimbledon	46	51	42.5	53.3	-10.8	53	55.1	-2.1
23	Rotherham	46	41	43.2	58.4	-15.2	41	51.8	-10.8
24	Northampton	46	39	40.7	60.3	-19.6	35	49.4	-14.4
1	Lincoln	23	53	37.9	18.8	+19.0	58	44.3	+13.7
2	Cardiff	23	50	36.7	20.8	+16.0	53	42.5	+10.5
3	Wycombe	23	45	34.3	18.6	+15.7	42	42.3	-0.3
4	Stevenage	23	27	28.8	15.4	+13.4	49	41.2	+7.8
5	Luton	23	37	28.7	15.5	+13.2	45	41.3	+3.7
6	Bolton	23	46	32.4	19.9	+12.5	47	39.7	+7.3
7	Bradford	23	32	27.9	18.2	+9.7	50	38.3	+11.7
8	Reading	23	33	28.2	20.2	+8.0	37	36.9	+0.1
9	Huddersfield	23	42	31.1	23.3	+7.8	42	36.6	+5.4
10	Plymouth	23	33	28.8	21.1	+7.7	34	36.7	-2.7
11	Mansfield	23	38	30.0	23.4	+6.6	35	35.9	-0.9
12	Doncaster	23	27	24.3	19.2	+5.1	33	34.1	-1.1
13	Exeter	23	30	28.2	23.3	+4.9	31	35.6	-4.6
14	Peterboro	23	39	30.2	26.1	+4.1	30	33.7	-3.7
15	Stockport	23	38	31.3	27.9	+3.4	43	33.6	+9.4
16	Wigan	23	24	23.9	20.4	+3.4	37	33.2	+3.8
17	Burton	23	27	26.3	23.9	+2.4	32	32.8	-0.8
18	Blackpool	23	35	26.6	25.0	+1.6	41	32.6	+8.4
19	Port Vale	23	17	22.9	21.5	+1.4	21	31.8	-10.8
20	Barnsley	23	39	25.9	25.8	0.0	33	32.0	+1.0
21	Leyton Orient	23	32	24.6	25.0	-0.3	31	31.1	-0.1
22	AFC Wimbledon	23	25	23.7	24.4	-0.7	28	31.2	-3.2
23	Northampton	23	23	23.8	25.4	-1.6	22	29.9	-7.9
24	Rotherham	23	24	24.4	29.0	-4.6	27	28.4	-1.4
1	Cardiff	23	40	26.2	23.5	+2.7	38	33.4	+4.6
2	Bolton	23	24	24.9	24.0	+0.9	28	32.2	-4.2
3	Plymouth	23	42	27.4	26.6	+0.8	39	31.9	+7.1
4	Lincoln	23	36	21.9	22.3	-0.4	45	30.8	+14.2
5	Stockport	23	33	27.3	29.1	-1.8	34	30.6	+3.4
6	Barnsley	23	29	24.3	26.6	-2.3	26	29.6	-3.6
7	Wycombe	23	24	23.6	27.1	-3.5	21	28.6	-7.6
8	Doncaster	23	23	24.3	28.9	-4.5	27	27.9	-0.9
9	Reading	23	31	23.1	28.2	-5.1	26	27.3	-1.3
10	Stevenage	23	22	21.0	26.6	-5.6	26	27.2	-1.2
11	Burton	23	23	21.7	27.4	-5.8	22	26.7	-4.7
12	Huddersfield	23	32	23.1	29.9	-6.8	25	26.4	-1.4
13	Mansfield	23	24	18.3	25.4	-7.0	30	26.1	+3.9
14	Port Vale	23	19	19.5	26.5	-7.0	21	26.2	-5.2
15	Leyton Orient	23	27	24.5	32.4	-7.9	21	26.7	-5.7
16	Bradford	23	26	21.9	30.1	-8.2	27	25.7	+1.3
17	Wigan	23	25	21.1	29.3	-8.2	19	25.3	-6.3
18	Luton	23	31	21.5	30.3	-8.8	29	24.9	+4.1
19	Peterboro	23	25	25.4	34.8	-9.5	23	25.4	-2.4
20	Blackpool	23	19	18.6	28.5	-9.9	19	24.0	-5.0
21	AFC Wimbledon	23	26	18.8	28.9	-10.1	25	23.9	+1.1
22	Rotherham	23	17	18.8	29.4	-10.6	14	23.4	-9.4
23	Exeter	23	22	18.1	29.9	-11.8	18	22.5	-4.5
24	Northampton	23	16	16.9	34.9	-18.0	13	19.5	-6.5

First half / second half

Descriptive — actual half-time and full-time facts (2025/26), not predictions.

Team	Pld
AFC Wimbledon	46	23	28	25	47	55%	2	3
Barnsley	46	33	35	32	41	51%	5	5
Blackpool	46	24	30	25	40	56%	3	5
Bolton	46	24	46	20	32	66%	8	3
Bradford	46	23	35	27	24	60%	5	1
Burton	46	22	28	25	35	56%	4	5
Cardiff	46	33	57	23	27	63%	5	0
Doncaster	46	23	27	23	46	54%	3	3
Exeter	46	17	35	33	28	67%	5	3
Huddersfield	46	29	45	27	37	61%	6	6
Leyton Orient	46	28	31	35	36	53%	3	2
Lincoln	46	46	43	16	25	48%	2	5
Luton	46	36	32	27	29	47%	4	3
Mansfield	46	26	36	20	30	58%	4	6
Northampton	46	16	23	36	38	59%	2	3
Peterboro	46	26	38	29	39	59%	4	2
Plymouth	46	34	41	31	32	55%	3	2
Port Vale	46	19	17	27	34	47%	2	3
Reading	46	29	35	19	41	55%	4	7
Rotherham	46	19	22	32	39	54%	4	7
Stevenage	46	21	28	18	28	57%	2	2
Stockport	46	33	38	26	32	54%	4	6
Wigan	46	22	27	29	29	55%	5	4
Wycombe	46	29	40	30	28	58%	3	6
League total	1104	635	817	635	817	56%	92	92

Home advantage

Realized home vs away results (2025/26). "Edge" = home PPG − away PPG. Descriptive, not a prediction.

League-wide home edge (PPG) over 26 seasons — the long decline:

Team	HP
AFC Wimbledon	23	35%	1.22	1.09	+0.13	-0.26	-0.65
Barnsley	23	39%	1.43	1.13	+0.30	+0.09	-0.30
Blackpool	23	52%	1.78	0.83	+0.96	+0.26	-0.74
Bolton	23	57%	2.04	1.22	+0.83	+0.96	-0.17
Bradford	23	65%	2.17	1.17	+1.00	+0.65	-0.35
Burton	23	39%	1.39	0.96	+0.43	-0.04	-0.39
Cardiff	23	74%	2.30	1.65	+0.65	+1.17	+0.57
Doncaster	23	39%	1.43	1.17	+0.26	-0.22	-0.61
Exeter	23	35%	1.35	0.78	+0.57	+0.04	-0.43
Huddersfield	23	48%	1.83	1.09	+0.74	+0.65	-0.22
Leyton Orient	23	35%	1.35	0.91	+0.43	+0.09	-0.61
Lincoln	23	78%	2.52	1.96	+0.57	+1.43	+0.65
Luton	23	57%	1.96	1.26	+0.70	+0.57	-0.04
Mansfield	23	39%	1.52	1.30	+0.22	+0.48	+0.04
Northampton	23	26%	0.96	0.57	+0.39	-0.35	-1.17
Peterboro	23	35%	1.30	1.00	+0.30	+0.39	-0.57
Plymouth	23	43%	1.48	1.70	-0.22	0.00	+0.52
Port Vale	23	17%	0.91	0.91	0.00	-0.35	-0.74
Reading	23	43%	1.61	1.13	+0.48	+0.22	-0.04
Rotherham	23	26%	1.17	0.61	+0.57	-0.35	-0.96
Stevenage	23	61%	2.13	1.13	+1.00	+0.61	-0.48
Stockport	23	57%	1.87	1.48	+0.39	+0.52	+0.04
Wigan	23	48%	1.61	0.83	+0.78	+0.30	-0.70
Wycombe	23	57%	1.83	0.91	+0.91	+0.96	-0.48
League total	552	46%	1.63	1.12	+0.52	+0.33	-0.33

Corners

Descriptive — actual corner counts (2025/26), shown where available. Not a prediction.

League-wide corners per team, per match over 26 seasons — the decline:

Team	Pld
AFC Wimbledon	46	216	232	4.7	5.0	5.5	3.9
Barnsley	46	226	277	4.9	6.0	5.2	4.6
Blackpool	46	197	258	4.3	5.6	4.3	4.3
Bolton	46	294	187	6.4	4.1	7.8	5.0
Bradford	46	256	201	5.6	4.4	5.9	5.2
Burton	46	243	237	5.3	5.2	6.1	4.5
Cardiff	46	287	195	6.2	4.2	6.5	6.0
Doncaster	46	197	251	4.3	5.5	4.4	4.1
Exeter	46	218	248	4.7	5.4	5.7	3.8
Huddersfield	46	272	212	5.9	4.6	6.7	5.2
Leyton Orient	46	219	224	4.8	4.9	5.0	4.5
Lincoln	46	199	227	4.3	4.9	4.3	4.3
Luton	46	281	198	6.1	4.3	7.1	5.1
Mansfield	46	216	222	4.7	4.8	5.3	4.1
Northampton	46	221	242	4.8	5.3	5.1	4.5
Peterboro	46	203	271	4.4	5.9	5.1	3.7
Plymouth	46	257	264	5.6	5.7	6.0	5.2
Port Vale	46	225	244	4.9	5.3	5.8	4.0
Reading	46	179	249	3.9	5.4	3.7	4.0
Rotherham	46	207	243	4.5	5.3	5.0	4.0
Stevenage	46	204	186	4.4	4.0	4.3	4.6
Stockport	46	239	218	5.2	4.7	5.5	4.9
Wigan	46	242	254	5.3	5.5	5.2	5.3
Wycombe	46	255	213	5.5	4.6	6.0	5.0
League total	1104	5553	5553	5.0	5.0	—	—