Premier League

xG Table · 2025/26

Model figures — expected goals scored by TrueGoals, not actual match xG.

Season leaders

Top xG

Biggest over-performers

Biggest under-performers

Best defences (lowest xGA)

Biggest xG difference

Man United+24.6
Arsenal+21.2
Man City+14.9
Chelsea+7.3
Brighton+6.7

#	Team
1	Man United	38	69	55.7	31.1	+24.6	71	67.9	+3.1
2	Arsenal	38	71	47.5	26.4	+21.2	85	66.9	+18.1
3	Man City	38	77	49.9	35.0	+14.9	78	63.0	+15.0
4	Chelsea	38	58	42.0	34.6	+7.3	52	56.5	-4.5
5	Brighton	38	52	46.5	39.8	+6.7	53	56.8	-3.8
6	Liverpool	38	63	44.0	37.3	+6.7	60	56.5	+3.5
7	Leeds	38	49	42.1	42.7	-0.6	47	51.6	-4.6
8	Brentford	38	55	40.2	41.0	-0.8	53	50.9	+2.1
9	Bournemouth	38	58	44.7	45.6	-0.9	57	52.0	+5.0
10	Nott'm Forest	38	48	41.4	42.7	-1.3	44	50.3	-6.3
11	Tottenham	38	48	39.6	41.7	-2.1	41	50.4	-9.4
12	Everton	38	47	40.1	43.6	-3.5	49	48.7	+0.3
13	Aston Villa	38	56	43.9	47.5	-3.6	65	48.9	+16.1
14	Newcastle	38	53	43.7	47.9	-4.2	49	48.9	+0.1
15	Fulham	38	47	38.2	42.9	-4.7	52	48.3	+3.7
16	Crystal Palace	38	41	39.1	45.0	-5.9	45	47.5	-2.5
17	Wolves	38	27	36.9	45.5	-8.6	20	45.2	-25.2
18	Sunderland	38	42	36.3	46.8	-10.5	54	44.3	+9.7
19	West Ham	38	46	38.5	51.8	-13.3	39	42.7	-3.7
20	Burnley	38	38	34.7	56.1	-21.4	22	37.3	-15.3
1	Man United	19	39	33.9	14.0	+19.9	42	39.6	+2.4
2	Arsenal	19	41	26.1	10.3	+15.8	47	37.2	+9.8
3	Man City	19	45	28.6	15.5	+13.1	45	35.3	+9.7
4	Liverpool	19	34	25.2	15.9	+9.3	36	32.5	+3.5
5	Brighton	19	30	25.6	17.9	+7.8	33	31.6	+1.4
6	Leeds	19	29	23.2	17.2	+5.9	32	29.9	+2.1
7	Chelsea	19	26	21.4	15.8	+5.6	26	29.8	-3.8
8	Bournemouth	19	29	22.7	17.3	+5.5	31	29.5	+1.5
9	Fulham	19	30	21.7	16.7	+5.0	35	29.1	+5.9
10	Brentford	19	33	22.7	19.1	+3.6	32	28.2	+3.8
11	Aston Villa	19	32	25.2	21.6	+3.6	38	28.1	+9.9
12	Newcastle	19	36	26.6	23.4	+3.2	32	28.3	+3.7
13	Everton	19	26	23.2	20.0	+3.1	23	27.7	-4.7
14	Tottenham	19	22	21.4	19.3	+2.1	15	27.3	-12.3
15	Sunderland	19	25	20.0	18.3	+1.7	33	27.0	+6.0
16	Nott'm Forest	19	20	21.1	20.0	+1.1	20	26.2	-6.2
17	Crystal Palace	19	19	21.4	20.9	+0.5	21	25.8	-4.8
18	Wolves	19	19	21.6	21.1	+0.5	14	25.8	-11.8
19	West Ham	19	27	20.5	22.4	-1.9	22	24.1	-2.1
20	Burnley	19	18	19.2	27.2	-8.0	13	20.6	-7.6
1	Arsenal	19	30	21.4	16.1	+5.4	38	29.7	+8.3
2	Man United	19	30	21.8	17.1	+4.7	29	28.3	+0.7
3	Man City	19	32	21.3	19.4	+1.9	33	27.7	+5.3
4	Chelsea	19	32	20.6	18.8	+1.7	26	26.7	-0.7
5	Brighton	19	22	20.9	21.9	-1.1	20	25.2	-5.2
6	Nott'm Forest	19	28	20.3	22.7	-2.4	24	24.2	-0.2
7	Liverpool	19	29	18.8	21.4	-2.6	24	24.0	0.0
8	Tottenham	19	26	18.2	22.3	-4.1	26	23.1	+2.9
9	Brentford	19	22	17.5	21.9	-4.4	21	22.7	-1.7
10	Bournemouth	19	29	22.0	28.3	-6.4	26	22.5	+3.5
11	Crystal Palace	19	22	17.7	24.1	-6.4	24	21.7	+2.3
12	Leeds	19	20	19.0	25.5	-6.5	15	21.7	-6.7
13	Everton	19	21	17.0	23.6	-6.6	26	20.9	+5.1
14	Aston Villa	19	24	18.7	25.9	-7.2	27	20.8	+6.2
15	Newcastle	19	17	17.1	24.5	-7.3	17	20.6	-3.6
16	Wolves	19	8	15.3	24.4	-9.1	6	19.3	-13.3
17	Fulham	19	17	16.5	26.2	-9.7	17	19.3	-2.3
18	West Ham	19	19	18.0	29.4	-11.4	17	18.6	-1.6
19	Sunderland	19	17	16.3	28.6	-12.3	21	17.3	+3.7
20	Burnley	19	20	15.5	28.9	-13.4	9	16.8	-7.8

First half / second half

Descriptive — actual half-time and full-time facts (2025/26), not predictions.

Team	Pld
Arsenal	38	30	41	10	17	58%	3	1
Aston Villa	38	21	35	23	26	63%	5	1
Bournemouth	38	26	32	23	31	55%	6	4
Brentford	38	24	31	24	28	56%	1	3
Brighton	38	20	32	25	21	62%	7	2
Burnley	38	16	22	38	37	58%	3	2
Chelsea	38	26	32	24	28	55%	4	4
Crystal Palace	38	20	21	25	26	51%	2	5
Everton	38	19	28	21	29	60%	4	5
Fulham	38	18	29	22	29	62%	2	2
Leeds	38	24	25	16	40	51%	2	4
Liverpool	38	24	39	17	36	62%	1	2
Man City	38	41	36	10	25	47%	1	8
Man United	38	29	40	16	34	58%	3	3
Newcastle	38	28	25	21	34	47%	1	5
Nott'm Forest	38	19	29	24	27	60%	5	1
Sunderland	38	13	29	23	25	69%	5	4
Tottenham	38	20	28	30	27	58%	4	1
West Ham	38	21	25	26	39	54%	1	5
Wolves	38	13	14	34	34	52%	4	2
League total	760	452	593	452	593	57%	64	64

Home advantage

Realized home vs away results (2025/26). "Edge" = home PPG − away PPG. Descriptive, not a prediction.

League-wide home edge (PPG) over 26 seasons — the long decline:

Team	HP
Arsenal	19	79%	2.47	2.00	+0.47	+1.58	+0.74
Aston Villa	19	63%	2.00	1.42	+0.58	+0.53	-0.16
Bournemouth	19	37%	1.63	1.37	+0.26	+0.47	-0.26
Brentford	19	42%	1.68	1.11	+0.58	+0.63	-0.47
Brighton	19	47%	1.74	1.05	+0.68	+0.53	-0.21
Burnley	19	11%	0.68	0.47	+0.21	-0.58	-1.37
Chelsea	19	37%	1.37	1.37	0.00	+0.05	+0.26
Crystal Palace	19	21%	1.11	1.26	-0.16	-0.21	-0.32
Everton	19	32%	1.21	1.37	-0.16	-0.05	-0.11
Fulham	19	58%	1.84	0.89	+0.95	+0.53	-0.74
Leeds	19	47%	1.68	0.79	+0.89	+0.42	-0.79
Liverpool	19	53%	1.89	1.26	+0.63	+0.74	-0.21
Man City	19	74%	2.37	1.74	+0.63	+1.63	+0.58
Man United	19	68%	2.21	1.53	+0.68	+0.79	+0.21
Newcastle	19	53%	1.68	0.89	+0.79	+0.32	-0.42
Nott'm Forest	19	21%	1.05	1.26	-0.21	-0.16	0.00
Sunderland	19	47%	1.74	1.11	+0.63	+0.26	-0.58
Tottenham	19	16%	0.79	1.37	-0.58	-0.47	0.00
West Ham	19	32%	1.16	0.89	+0.26	-0.16	-0.84
Wolves	19	16%	0.74	0.32	+0.42	-0.79	-1.37
League total	380	43%	1.55	1.17	+0.38	+0.30	-0.30

Corners

Descriptive — actual corner counts (2025/26), shown where available. Not a prediction.

League-wide corners per team, per match over 26 seasons — the decline:

Team	Pld
Arsenal	38	216	128	5.7	3.4	5.9	5.5
Aston Villa	38	199	187	5.2	4.9	5.5	4.9
Bournemouth	38	212	202	5.6	5.3	6.0	5.2
Brentford	38	182	204	4.8	5.4	4.4	5.2
Brighton	38	185	183	4.9	4.8	4.9	4.8
Burnley	38	138	228	3.6	6.0	3.7	3.5
Chelsea	38	231	164	6.1	4.3	6.8	5.3
Crystal Palace	38	160	199	4.2	5.2	4.4	4.1
Everton	38	163	194	4.3	5.1	4.9	3.6
Fulham	38	188	210	4.9	5.5	5.5	4.4
Leeds	38	168	193	4.4	5.1	5.6	3.3
Liverpool	38	232	167	6.1	4.4	6.3	5.9
Man City	38	247	145	6.5	3.8	7.2	5.8
Man United	38	182	186	4.8	4.9	5.3	4.3
Newcastle	38	231	187	6.1	4.9	6.8	5.4
Nott'm Forest	38	199	183	5.2	4.8	6.0	4.5
Sunderland	38	141	201	3.7	5.3	4.1	3.4
Tottenham	38	208	178	5.5	4.7	6.2	4.8
West Ham	38	187	232	4.9	6.1	5.3	4.5
Wolves	38	130	228	3.4	6.0	3.2	3.7
League total	760	3799	3799	5.0	5.0	—	—